By: Johann Els
As I reflect on a career spanning decades in investment and economic research, I find myself returning to the same guiding principle: economic analysis must balance realism with perspective.
Economics is not an exact science — it is the study of human behaviour, with data that is revised, delayed, and imperfect.
Headlines capture attention, but they rarely tell the full story. Understanding the broader direction of the economy and the structural forces that shape it is far more important than reacting to every fluctuation.
Over the years, I have learned that analysis must align with the horizon of investment. Past trends are instructive, but they only become meaningful when interpreted through the lens of current policy, institutional capacity, and structural constraints.
In South Africa, this means recognising both the opportunities created by increased private sector participation in energy, logistics, and infrastructure, and the limitations imposed by labour market rigidities, skills shortages, and regulatory complexity. These factors define what is realistically achievable, and they guide the medium-term outlook for growth and investment.
My approach is grounded in perspective. It is about weighing risks alongside opportunities, separating signal from noise, and providing credible guidance that informs decisions rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
So, what sets my approach apart?
Economics is practiced in many ways; some focus on forecasting the next data point, others on building theoretical models.
Both are valuable, and I draw on these tools, but my emphasis has always been different: I focus on the medium-term horizon where strategic decisions are taken and investment commitments are made.
My philosophy is to balance realism with perspective – recognising data’s imperfections, understanding institutional limits, and identifying credible pathways for growth.
This approach has enabled me to provide analysis that is rigorous yet trusted, actionable, and enduring; a complement to, rather than a substitute for, the valuable work done elsewhere in the field.
Radical economic transformation is happening in South Africa — not through populism, but through structural shifts that lift growth from stagnation towards a 2.5-3% trajectory.
While constraints remain, these shifts are meaningful, sustainable, and capable of creating confidence, investment, and long-term stability.
Writing this now, as I approach official retirement, I remain fully engaged, energetic, and committed to contributing where my experience can add value — whether in executive, advisory, or thought-leadership roles.
Economic analysis, at its best, is not about predicting every twist and turn; it is about illuminating direction, supporting informed decision-making, and instilling confidence amidst uncertainty.
Reflecting on my career reinforces my belief that perspective is the economist’s most valuable tool. It shapes how we understand risk, opportunity, and change, and it continues to guide the ways I seek to make a meaningful contribution to economic understanding and strategy.
Johann Els is the Group Chief Economist at Old Mutual Ltd
