By: Nghiinomenwa-vali Hangala
An impact assessment of Namibia’s industrialisation potential and AfCFTA readiness shows that the Namibian pasta industry has potential to be scaled for African and global export.
Uncooked pasta presents a scalable intra-African export opportunity for Namibia, with US$27 million in unrealised intra-African export potential and US$34 million globally by 2030.
This is according to the Country Impact Assessment Report – Policy Brief: Accelerated Industrial Development for Africa (AIDA) & the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
It was released by the National Planning Commission yesterday.
This policy brief assessed the industrialisation progress to highlight what the evidence suggests for Namibia’s AfCFTA pathway.
It is intended to inform policy dialogue, prioritisation, and coordination as AfCFTA and AIDA implementation deepens, with a focus on strengthening execution quality and firm-level readiness across existing value chains.
According to the brief, Namibia’s export profile remains concentrated in resource-linked and corridor-based trade.
However, trade gains under the AfCFTA are likely to arise from strengthening delivery competitiveness, expanding beneficiation and processing capacity, and improving the translation of industrial readiness into scalable export performance, the brief stated.
However, most of the trade gains are regional opportunities and are highly concentrated in South Africa (41%), Zimbabwe (21%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (10%), Zambia (8%), and other African markets (20%).
This reflects a clearly defined set of corridor markets where demand is already established, noted the report.
In 2024, Namibia exported approximately US$7 million worth of uncooked pasta, nearly all destined for SADC markets.
South Africa absorbed about 85% of exports, with Botswana, Zambia, and Angola accounting for most of the remaining volumes.
In terms of pasta, the supply is anchored in domestic manufacturing led by Namib Mills, which produces about 65,000 tonnes of pasta annually and supports exports through established distribution networks.
Competitiveness is shaped by continued dependence on imported cereal inputs, as Namibia is a net cereal importer and cereal imports account for about two-thirds of national consumption requirements.
“As a result, production costs remain closely linked to imported wheat prices and regional logistics conditions,” added the brief.
According to the policy brief, AfCFTA Enabling Environment Monitoring also reviewed whether Namibia’s trade-related policies and systems are effectively translating into lower trade costs and improved market access for firms.
Attention was given to customs procedures, border performance, standards and certification, logistics connectivity, and payments and trade finance.
The analysis highlights gaps between institutional frameworks and operational performance, helping to identify practical bottlenecks that limit firm-level uptake of AfCFTA preferences.
An effective enabling environment is critical for Namibia to translate AfCFTA market opportunities into real export growth.
The performance of Namibia’s trade systems, standards infrastructure, and financial ecosystem will determine how quickly firms can integrate into regional value chains and compete across AfCFTA markets.
Moreover, efficient customs processes and well-developed road and rail corridors support regional trade, but incomplete digital integration at borders and the early stage of One-Stop Border Post operationalisation slow such trade.
At the same time, uneven infrastructure quality beyond primary corridors continues to affect the predictability of cross-border trade.
The policy brief has also highlighted that domestic trade finance conditions are generally supportive at the firm level, but less developed in terms of regional integration and AfCFTA-specific alignment.
“The lack of AfCFTA-targeted MSME financing instruments constrains broader and more inclusive utilisation of AfCFTA opportunities,” the assessment revealed.
Moreover, limited capital account openness and the absence of intra-Africa cross-border payment systems are limiting.
Closing these operational gaps will be essential for Namibia to convert institutional readiness into tangible trade and industrial gains, the researchers revealed.
