By: Dwight Links
Southern Africa is in position to have a rainy season below expectations during the October to December 2026 period, according to the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook forum’s latest report.
Climate experts from the SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) formulated the outlook for the 2026 to 2027 period.
“The bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) 2026 period,” the forum outlined after meeting for four days in Swakopmund from 25 to 28 August.
The assessment for the coming rainy season is broken up into various clusters of the southern African context, which identify the varying rainfall scenarios for the oncoming wet season.
The climate scientists at the Swakopmund event considered key oceanic and atmospheric drivers that influence rainfall variability over the SADC region.
“El Nino conditions currently established in the tropical Pacific are expected to strengthen further, with most modes indicating a strong to very strong event, and peak intensity is expected around the OND 2026 period,” the scientists at the forum outlined.
According to the forum, the sea surface temperatures,known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are currently in a neutral state.
The Dipole is monitored by the levels of oscillation between warm and cold conditions that are present in the Indian Ocean.
“The IOD is currently neutral, but the latest model guidance indicates a high likelihood of a strong positive IOD developing by September 2026 and persisting through the OND period, before weakening towards neutral conditions during early 2027,” the scientists explained during the forum’s meeting.
THE FORECAST
“Normal to below-normal rainfall is expected over the southwestern coastal part of South Africa, south western Madagascar and Mauritius,” the forum highlighted.
In this same period, the opposite picture is expected for other parts of the continent.
The forum indicated that normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most of the Democratic Republic of Congo, northwestern Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique, the southern fringes of Tanzania and Comoros.
“While above-normal rainfall is expected over eastern DRC, most of Tanzania, extreme northern Malawi, extreme northern Zambia, and Seychelles,” the statement outlined for many of south-eastern, eastern to central-north SADC.
The next window under observation will be the January to March (JFM) period which places the region that includes Namibia into focus.
“This period is expected to have below-normal rainfall over most of the central and southern parts of the SADC region, particularly across Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa,” the forum indicated its caution over this period.
Other areas affected by this forecast of seasonal rainfall also include southern Mozambique, northern South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho and Madagascar.
For the same 2027 period in the new year, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over the northern parts of the region – this being the areas of Zambia, DRC, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania and Seychelles.
In the same period, the opposite of this picture is expected to impact the rainfall in the Indian Ocean region of SADC.
“Normal to below-normal are to be expected in the north and western areas of Madagascar, while normal to above-normal is expected for the southeastern parts. Mauritius is expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall during this early period of 2027,” the forum stated.
The forum indicated that the temperatures for the October to January window will be consistent for much of SADC, while not so for the central and northeastern parts of the region.
“The temperature outlook for October 2026 to January 2027 indicates above- normal temperatures over most of the SADC region, except for central to northeastern parts where below-normal temperatures are expected,” the forum said.
