By: Dwight Links
A lot of data is being generated by known technologies from outer space, like satellites and other ground sources, that help with monitoring natural disasters plaguing various regions of the planet.
Visiting academic, Professor Ioannis Pitas from the University of Thessaloniki indicated that satellites and other monitoring systems are central to assessing the impacts of the various natural disasters when it comes to bush or wild fires and floods.
“In combating wildfires or forest fires and floods, these are the impactful areas that are most commonly observed from these sources,” Pitas indicated.
Pitas noted that his presentation focused on artificial intelligence and big data analytics in processing the impact of these specific kinds of disasters on the environment.
“These data sets are accessed or collected from sources such as social media, ground, outer space, and other sources,” he added.
The professor noted that this leads to a considerable amount of time spent on processing the data into meaningful reports for the relevant response(s).
“This data constantly floods the disaster management operators, and this leads to huge exercises in data analysis. This overloads these operators as they are conducting heterogeneous extreme data analytics in the best possible way, so that we can have the best outcomes for natural disaster management,” the professor said.
Pitas leads the TEMA-project, which is a four-year EU-funded project aimed at improving natural disaster management using new digital technologies and advanced data analytics. The project’s focus is mainly on flood and wildfire analysis.
“This is about the precise mapping of the phenomenon and the prediction of the origins of the phenomenon. This relies on the various sources that are generated when a disaster occurs,” Pitas added.
He indicated that it is possible for this to be adopted in Southern Africa, with the aim of improving and accelerating data analytics, and to use this information to produce models and predictions for the best decision-making scenarios.
Precipitation Estimation
Another academic, Katelyn Johnson from Stellenbosch University, stated that the storms and severe weather recorded by scientists in Southern Africa differs vastly in nature of strength and impact.
“The storms we see today are not the storms we are designing for. So, how do we redefine the probable maximum precipitation in a climate that may be considered no longer stationary?” Johnson queried.
The probable maximum precipitation is the theoretical amount of precipitation for a given duration under modern meteorological conditions in a specific location or area, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
“However, this estimate does not take into account any changes in the climate. This is important as it is being used by engineers or hydrologists to estimate the maximum probable flood, which is used to design high hydraulic structures – like dams located upstream from a populated area – and we need good estimates to ensure the reliability of these structures,” Johnson stated in her presentation.
She outlined that the systems and models used today were designed in the 1960s and 1970s, and are proving to be a challenge.
“These systems and models were based on a stationary climate. Weather patterns are changing, storm intensities are increasing, and these changes are undermining the reliability of the design thresholds that we are busy designing for our infrastructure,” she explained.
Johnson noted that this speaks to the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events and their intensities in the Southern African region. And, these events ought to be analysed separately from the socio-economic and political elements undermining the effectiveness of response systems to withstand these weather events.
The two researchers presented their findings at the recent Climate Change and Futures in Africa conference, which was held in Windhoek from 29 October to 1 November.
