By: Nghiinomenwa-vali Erastus
Experts from the agricultural unions are recommending that the country incentivises its meat value-adding systems to reduce live export and retain some of its cattle within the local value chain, adding that “Namibia’s heavy reliance on live exports is a structural vulnerability”.
This was stated through the Namibia Agricultural Union (NAU) Second Quarter Agri-Review for the year 2025.
NAU analyst, Leigh-Ann Nehoya explained that it is important that government, farmers, and abattoirs work together to develop a system that retains more of its cattle within the local value chain through incentivised value-adding systems.
With that, such development would provide an alternative channel for producers, allowing them to participate in the value chain without needing to raise cattle to slaughter. Moreover, it can enable Namibia to ensure throughput (slaughter animals) for its abattoirs and a consistent beef supply.
“This will give the country greater control over its beef supply and guarantee throughput at abattoirs,” Nehoya wrote.
The union’s recommendation comes as the country experiences one of the steepest cattle marketing reductions of 56.24% from the 211,610 marketed during the first half of 2024 to 92,600 recorded during the same period in 2025.
This was significantly influenced by the decline in live exports to South Africa, which dropped by 75.71%.
Beef exports fell by 51.4% in the first quarter and a further 49.7% in the second quarter.
According to NAU observations, this is because the beginning of 2025 showed strong confidence among farmers as they reinvest in their herds. This has, however, created a paradox where green pastures coincided with empty abattoirs and halved export flows.
NAU analysis also indicated that local cattle producers, on average, have a cattle retention of around 2-5%. This figure has, however, increased to approximately 60% in 2025, according to the Agri-Review.
This change indicates a deliberate focus on rebuilding the national herd at the farm level, a move aimed at increasing the future supply of slaughter-ready animals.
The lack of slaughter-ready animals does not only cripple abattoirs, but also the local processing industry and impacts the prices of meat products and other protein sources.
In terms of trade, beef exports have dropped from the 10,968 tons exported during the first half of 2024 to a mere 5,461 tons exported during the same period in 2025.
According to NAU, this is a reflection of reduced slaughter at export abattoirs.
This has also impacted the country’s revenue generation and foreign reserves, as the country reduces its beef exports to South Africa, the UK, and China.
Nehoya further explained that the current herd rebuilding effort is a continuation of a challenging period for farmers, who have faced years of difficult conditions with a series of droughts since 2019 in some areas.
“The sharp decrease in marketing numbers reflects a fundamental biological reality: after years of destocking, farmers simply do not have the animals ready to be sent to market,” she noted.
This cyclical trend is closely linked to Namibia’s highly variable and erratic rainfall regime. The country is characterised by persistent droughts and unpredictable rainfall patterns. The most recent significant rainfall in 2011 led to herd growth, reflected in high export numbers.
However, the subsequent years of below-average rainfall have consistently challenged farmers’ ability to maintain and expand their herds, leading to the necessary herd rebuilding phase being experienced currently.
Nehoya added that even though the current focus is on herd rebuilding, a significant long-term constraint is bush encroachment, which reduces the land’s carrying capacity.
She recommended that the country implement strategies to combat this issue.
Nehoya stated that the availability of quality grazing can be increased, and if paired with good rangeland management, can double the livestock sector output.
“This would allow farmers to rebuild their herds more rapidly and sustainably, effectively compressing the biological lag in livestock recovery and shortening the time it takes for weaners to reach slaughter weight,” she explained.
It has also been noted that various markets, such as the USA and Europe, are facing cattle supply issues, reducing their overall beef production.
The Chinese market has also opened up for more beef, with its beef imports from the USA limited by the two countries’ tariff war.
Namibia has access to all three markets. However, with dwindling beef exports, filling the gap in the short-term is not expected as herd building continues. erastus@thevillager.com.na
