By: David Shoombe
The recent takeover of civilian government by the military in Guinea-Bissau brings the number of coups in Africa to ten in just five years.
According to analysts, this not only undermines Africa’s long-term Agenda 2063 of “The Africa we want,” but it has made the initiative of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) a challenge.
In the former French colonies alone, in the past four years, six African countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, the Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and Senegal officially terminated defence corporation agreements with France – a setback to France’s influence in Africa.
The sentiments collected from various political pieces and trade analyses across the continent highlight that the internal conflicts in Africa not only distract businesses’ operations, but also change the whole economic system and bring fear from internal and external investors due to political uncertainties.
This does not include the deadliest protest in Mozambique post-October 2024 elections, which saw the crippling of the country’s economy.
The conflicts in Mozambique caused a South African logistics blockage, leading to South African businesses losing R10 million per day for a fortnight, according to the South African Border Management Authority (BMA).
The BMA temporarily closed the Lebombo border post between South Africa and Mozambique following the protests against the outcome of the October 2024 elections, which extended the 49-year rule of Frelimo, the ruling party.
This impacted the economic relations between the two countries between November and December of 2024.
Moreover, the closure of the Maputo port – a major hub for South African exports – not only affected multinational corporations, but SMEs alike.
The African Union 2025 budget shows that the overall budget for 2025 was around US$608.2 million, with a notable portion of funding for peace and security operations coming from external sources.
A 2025 report from the World Bank indicates that Africa contains most of the poorest countries on earth, while predicting the economic growth and recovery of countries such as Zimbabwe, Ghana and Nigeria.
At the recent AU-EU Summit, United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, indicated that African economic growth needs peace and security to be upgraded through international support.
Public policy analyst and historian Gabriel Iiyambo states that “Coups in Africa became prominent after many African states gained independence from European colonists.”
He explained that these coups were “sponsored by Europeans and Western allies to promote neo-colonialism and replace popular African leaders who were not supporting the neo-colonial agenda,” noting that “Africans should strengthen their institutions in their countries. Militaries are well-equipped and capable of preventing coups and have the capability of controlling vast borders to prevent terrorists from infiltrating nations. These nations should aim to reduce unemployment and ensure the youth or those in the army are not tempted.”
Post graduate researcher on international trade, Daniel Nashilundo, states that maintaining peace within the continent is key, as Namibia embarked on its first AfCFTA shipment this year to Nigeria and Kenya.
Nashilundo added that “the sustainability of this trade is defined by the peace and security of these trading partners of ours.”
He noted that with Nigeria declaring a state of emergency on abduction, a ripple effect on African trade is expected.
Sakaria Johannes, a political analyst, recommends that “African states should come together and have a continental army, and it should be created under the African Union,” adding that there is a need to have an independent, unbiased security body.
