By: Nghiinomenwa-vali Hangala
The Namibian population is projected to increase from 2,9 million in 2023 to 3,5 million in 2030. However, to reach this number, 493,900 babies need to be born by 2030.
This is according to the Namibia National Population Projections 2023-2053 Report, which was released by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA).
The population is expected to continue to grow over the subsequent decades, reaching 5 million by 2050 and 5,3 million by 2053.
Overall, Namibia’s population is projected to grow by approximately 2.29 million people between 2023 and 2053.
Projection results also show a decline in annual average population growth rates.
The population growth rate for Namibia is expected to decrease from 2.3% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2053 for the medium variant.
The statistics agency has also revealed that fertility levels are projected to decline in Namibia during the projection period.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is projected to decline from 3.9 children per woman in 2023 to 3.0 children per woman in 2053.
As for mortality, estimates show that life expectancy at birth for both sexes is expected to increase from 68.4 years in 2023 to 73.0 years in 2053.
Similarly, the life expectancy at birth for males and females is expected to increase to 69.4 and 76.7 years in 2053, respectively.
In contrast, the age dependency ratio is expected to decrease from 79 for every 100 working persons in 2023 to 71 dependents in 2053.
The country’s Population and Housing Census (PHC) is undertaken at ten-year intervals to provide current population counts and other sociodemographic indicators.
However, according to the NSA, these censuses provide statistics at a point in time and do not account for the continuous change in population over time. “It is thus important to provide information on population changes during intercensal periods to inform planning and development initiatives,” the Agency wrote.
Population projections will also assist the government and stakeholders in monitoring and evaluating various national, regional and international development plans.
Furthermore, population projections are important for policy updating and formulation.
“Key aspects of the policy process include recognition that challenges exist and placing such challenges on the policy agenda,” stated NSA.
Since population growth and distribution contribute to many of the major development challenges, population projections are required to show the future magnitude of those challenges.
The Namibian population pyramid for Namibia in 2023 has a broad base indicative of high fertility and a youthful age structure, that is with a large proportion of its population in the young and/or youthful ages.
According to the NSA, such population characteristics create a high child dependency ratio that places a heavy burden on the working-age population and constrains the provision of basic needs and social services.
The agency has also warned that by 2053, the population pyramid of Namibia will continue to reflect a relatively young population, though it will be gradually aging as birth rates decline and life expectancy increases.
