By:Staff writer
The outlook from Namibia’s fishing sector looks negative for 2023 mainly due to the ongoing illegal fishing by Angolan companies in Namibian waters, says Simonis Storm.
It has been reported that the Namibian economy has lost billions as a result of illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.
“This has negatively impacted Namibia’s stock of fish and could imply that the total allowable catch (TAC) should decrease as scientists ought to account for illegal fishing in protecting Namibia’s biomass,” the firm said.
“We are aware that illegal fishing has caused problems for certain sub-sectors in the fishing industry and can have a material impact on total fish landings.”
In December, cabinet approved a TAC of 290,000 metric tonnes (mt) for horse mackerel for the 2023 season, which is less than the 330,000 mt it approved the previous year.
In 2021, government also approved a lower TAC for hake compared to 2020, which, at the time, the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources for which Annely Haiphene, its Executive Director, said the government was taking precautionary measures according to the guidelines of the Marine Stewardship Council, and ensuring sustainability for future generations based on international guidelines.
The negative outlook for the fishing sector comes as the value of fish exports increased by 21.5% year-on-year in December 2022, compared to 31.3% year-on-yearin November 2022.
On a monthly basis fish exports nearly doubled, rising 50.0% month-on-month in December 2022.
“The weak Rand exchange rate ought to benefit fish export earnings in the first quarter of 2023, however, we expect export earnings could decrease as fish landings are expected to decrease notably from last year,”acccording to Simonis Storm.
Meanwhile, as for livestock, marketing activity (including both slaughtering and export activity) contracted for most segments in the livestock sector, due to a low supply of slaughter ready animals at both local and export approved abattoirs during January 2023, according to the Meat Board.
“Goat marketing recorded the largest annual decline of 17.9% y/y in January 2023, followed by cattle (↓ 8.8% y/y) and sheep marketing recording the only increase of 4.2% y/y.”
Crop production is also expected to be limited this year as a result of many areas crucial for local food production still not receiving adequate, timely or sufficient rain.
“This is also evidenced by current water dam levels being below levels recorded 12-months ago . We therefore maintain our negative stance on crop farming activities in 2023 which will likely weigh on agricultural growth for the year.”
Interrupted electricity supply in South Africa has also played a part in the negative effect on local crop production, as the analysts argue that certain towns do not have sufficient water due to pumps not being able to operate.
“This has led to a shortage of water for farmers who now cannot use their irrigation systems at full capacity, with prolonged loadshedding also preventing irrigation systems from being utilised efficiently. This is expected to reduce crop production in South Africa and so food price inflation can remain on an upward trend in 2023.”
Local food prices are also at risk of seeing further increases as the country imports most of its food from South Africa.
“Indeed, the NAB indicated that Namibia produces only between 20% to 30% of our annual food requirement, making the country vulnerable to crop production and therefore prices in South Africa.”
