By:Justicia Shipena
AgriBank of Namibia says that adverse weather patterns could reduce crop yields in 2023.
This week the bank released its monthly market watch for November focusing on food prices remaining high.
According to the monthly market watch, a third La Niña year is anticipated which will potentially reduce yields of key crops in South America and Southern Africa.
During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than average in the south and cooler than normal in the north.
Reports show that the pattern shifts back and forth every two to seven years and brings with it some predictable weather changes in temperature and precipitation. It referred to cooler-than-average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which causes a shift in weather patterns globally.
With this, AgriBank said this will further reduce global food supply and subsequently elevate food prices.
Statistics show that Namibian food inflation increased to 7.1% high in October 2022, when compared to 3.6% October 2021.
AgriBank said the food inflation spiked to 9.2% in October 2022 from 5.4% recorded in the same period last year, adding that prices of oils and fats continue to drive food inflation, escalating by 24.6%.
“Cooking oil and margarines remain expensive on retail shelves. Fruit prices increased by 21.6% in October 2022, from 15.4% in the same period in the prior year. The main drivers of this sub-category are avocados and citrus fruits where local supply is low,” the report noted.
AgriBank added that the inflation for watermelons increased to 24.7% compared to 3.2% in October 2021.
“Early harvest farmers usually take advantage of the price, in October farm gate prices were ranging at N$60 per watermelon, this price significantly reduced to N$30 by the end of October to early November when the supply increased.”
With the anticipated occurrence of a La Niña putting threatening food production and global food prices, AgriBank recommends that Namibia expedite resource mobilisation towards climate adaptation and resilience projects for farmers.
The bank said global food commodity prices remain elevated post-Covid-19 as the demand for food continues to outweigh the supply.
“This is further exacerbated by the depreciating Rand to USD ZAR 17.3 end November 2022,” it said.
However, in its market watch it said commodity prices are expected to ease in the next two years, but will remain considerably above the five-year average level.
In addition, it noted that disruptions in the wheat exports from Ukraine or Russia could once again interrupt global supplies, as they did in the early stages of the war in Ukraine, while further increases in energy prices or disruptions in energy supplies could exert upward pressure on grain and edible oil prices.
LIVESTOCK MARKETING POSITIVE
On the cattle sector, AgriBank stated that the number of cattle marketed stood at 21991 heads in October 2022, which is a 36% increase from the 16,164 marketed in September 2022.
The growth in cattle markets, it said, can be attributed to a 60% increase in live exports to 15667 in October 2022 from 9808 recorded in the prior month.
“99% of these cattle were exported to South Africa, following the ban on movement of cattle that was lifted in September 2022,” it said.
It said they expect livestock marketing to remain on an upward trajectory for the rest of the year, coupled with the anticipated rainy season and the resumption of weaner exports to South Africa.
Small-stock sheep marketing recorded an average decline of 30% from July 2022 to September 2022.
In a meantime, October 2022 showed a potential turn-around, declining at a slower pace of 9% to 24043 marketed heads from 26517 in September 2022.
This has seen growth in goat marketing, recording a 44% increase to 16965 heads in October 2022 from 11745 in September 2022, according to the market watch of November.
“The growth was driven by an increase in marketing activities in live exports that spiked by 43% to 16749 in October 2022 from 11742 in the prior month,” said AgriBank.
The Namibia Rangeland monitoring report for November 2022 indicated that the eastern and northeastern parts of the country are in the process of greening up, a result of a few raindrops received.
“This is a better indication for good grazing lands over certain areas in the country. We remain cautious on rainfall expectations for next rainy season.”
Hence, AgriBank recommendations are that farmers should take advantage of improved rangeland conditions, to reduce feeding cost for animals.