By: Hertha Ekandjo
Solar and wind with storage make up the largest share of Namibia’s energy future under a least-costly energy investment scenario toward 2030 and 2040.
This is according to TMP Public, a UK-based non-profit consultancy and think-tank that solves complex social and environmental problems through research, analysis and advisory services.
In its study titled, ‘Least-Cost Energy Investment Study for Namibia’ Report for 2023, TMP Public said their forecast will cumulatively account for 70% and 77% of the country’s installed capacity, respectively.
Notably, the least-cost model does not include any new hydropower until 2040, unless Namibia artificially removes the cost of grid connection.
According to the consultancy, these results are generally comparable with those in Namibia’s draft National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) 2022.
The consultancy said it has found Namibia has widespread high-quality resources in areas that avoid dense populations, protected areas and sensitive land uses.
Furthermore, TMP noted nearly 125,000km2 of the most suitable solar and wind areas also pose relatively low social risk.
“While strong social engagement and environmental risk assessment is still needed in these locations, they should not create significant complications that could lead to delay, increased costs and slow project completion,” TMP said in its study released by International Rivers and EarthLife Namibia this week.
Moreover, the study noted that by contrast, a River-scope assessment indicates that Baynes is highly susceptible to delays because of high social and environmental risk exposure.
The Baynes is a Hydropower Project situated along the Cunene River, 185 km downstream of Ruacana at the border separating Namibia and neighbouring Angola.
The project involves the construction of a hydropower dam on the Cunene River, 48 km downstream of the Epupa Falls.
It is envisaged that the Baynes mid-merit/peaking power station’s capacity will be in the range of 600 MW, which will be shared equally by Namibia and Angola.
Moreover, the study stated that estimates suggest delays of 2.5 years, or in worst case up to 14 years, in addition to normal lead times.
“This would bring Baynes online sometime between 2031 and 2042. There are good reasons to believe Baynes would have problems because of social risks,” TMP noted.
The Epupa dam, some 40km upstream from the Baynes site, was shelved after both projects faced considerable opposition from local and international groups.
This opposition is likely to continue to be a problem for the development of Baynes in a timely manner.
According to the study, partly because of these challenges, electricity from Baynes would cost at least 66-166% more than existing domestic wind and solar alternatives by the time it would come online in 2031.
“So, it will probably be expensive, even compared to other large hydropower projects in Africa. These high costs would be very likely to drive up the price of electricity for Namibia’s energy consumers.
“Our review demonstrates that solar and wind options could be developed in less than half the time needed for Baynes,” said the study.
Be it assumed that Namibia can develop 60MW per year, TMP says it could add a similar capacity to Baynes by 2027. And the country would be more energy secure every year, reducing reliance on imports more rapidly.
The consultancy said this is important because extreme drought periods have already created energy shortfalls for Namibia because of its over-reliance on Ruacana.
“Drought events are likely to become more frequent and severe by 2030, exacerbated further by competing upstream water demands. They will impact both Namibia and its neighbours, who use hydropower extensively to generate energy for export,” the study said.
