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Harvard releases list of top five fastest-growing economies to watch … Namibia is nowhere to be found

25/05/2018
by Kelvin Chiringa
Business

Researchers at Harvard’s Center for International Development (CID) have released their latest growth projections with a list of the top five fastest growing economies to watch and Namibia is no where near.

India leads the pack as “the fastest growing country for the coming decade, at 7.9% annually, in the economic complexity growth projections”.

“India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics,” the researchers have noted.

Coming in second is China whose growth is projected to be “amongst the top quintile of global countries for the coming decade, according to the projections.”

“Yet, the rate itself will represent a marked slowdown from decades past. China is expected to contribute one third of total growth globally for 2018, and yet the growth rate is expected to fall a full percentage point from last year,” the researchers also note.

Coming in third is Uganda which “ranks   second in the economic complexity growth projections and is expected to sustain a rapid pace of 7.5 percent annually to 2026.”

“Rapid growth derives from Uganda’s climb in the Economic Complexity Index ranking, as the country has risen 27 spots to be the 75th most complex economy globally,” the researchers have observed.

They add, “While this ranking leaves significant room for improvement, it also far outpaces the country’s expected complexity for its income level, leading to the projection of rapid growth. Uganda has made inroads into basic chemicals, such as paints and hair preparations, and packaging products, while also diversifying a large agricultural export sector to include select processed foods.”

Vietnam comes in fourth and is expected to be the 9th fastest growing economy for the coming decade.

“This rapid growth looks to build on a roaring economy that has sustained at least five percent growth every year since 2000,” they say while Mexico trails last.

 Of the countries that will cap the list of the fastest growing economies to 2026, predicted at 7.9 and 7.5 percent annually, respectively, India and Uganda have come under the limelight.

 “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is shifting eastward from commodity-driven West Africa to East Africa, with Uganda, Tanzania (4th), and Kenya (10th) in the top 10 predicted fastest growing countries globally for the coming decade,” it has been suggested. 

Namibia’s case has been that of an economy too much reliant on unprocessed exports without a solid manufacturing base, and as Timothy Cheston, a CID researcher on the project cautions, countries that produce a few, simple exports will continue to be stuck with low incomes. 

“Global growth is being driven by countries who have increased their economic complexity, by diversifying the set of specialized knowhow to create more, and more complex products,” says Cheston.  

He also warns that countries that produce a few, simple exports will continue to be stuck with low incomes.

“Global growth is being driven by countries who have increased their economic complexity, by diversifying the set of specialized knowhow to create more, and more complex products,” he adds.